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fracking - 水力壓裂法.
Shale gas - 頁岩氣.
Ther are different opinions about shale gas and fracking.
WIKI
頁岩氣
頁岩氣是蘊藏於頁岩層中的天然氣。[1]過去十年內,頁岩氣已成為美國一種日益重要的天然氣資源,同時也得到了全世界其他國家的廣泛關注。2000年,美國頁岩氣產量僅占天然氣總量的1%;而到2010年,因為水力壓裂、水平鑽井等技術的發展,頁岩氣所佔的比重已超過20%。根據美國能源信息署(Energy Information Administration)的預測,到2035年時,美國46%的天然氣供給將來自頁岩氣。[2]
一些分析人士預計,頁岩氣將大幅度增加全球能源供給[3]。據估算,中國的頁岩氣可采儲量居世界首位。中國陸域頁岩氣地質資源潛力為134.42萬億立方米,可采資源潛力為25.08萬億立方米(不含青藏區)。其中,已獲工業氣流或有頁岩氣發現的評價單元,面積約88萬平方公里,地質資源為93.01萬億立方米,可采資源為15.95萬億立方米[4]。萊斯大學貝克公共政策研究中心(Baker Institute of Public Policy)的一項研究認為,美國與加拿大頁岩氣產量的增長將會削弱俄羅斯及波斯灣國家對出口至歐洲國家的天然氣價格的控制。[5]奧巴馬政府相信,頁岩氣的持續發展可以降低溫室氣體的排放。[6](2012年,美國的二氧化碳排放量降到了二十年來的最低值)不過也有研究宣稱,與常規天然氣相比,頁岩氣的開發與使用可能產生更多的溫室氣體。[7][8]而另外一些研究[9]則反駁說該指責高估了甲烷的泄露率及其全球暖化潛勢。[10]還有研究則指出,一些頁岩氣井的產量遞減率很高,可能導致最終的頁岩氣產量將比目前預計的更低。
The Misunderstood Global Financial Crisis. “It’s the Energy Stupid”
By Lars Schall
Global Research, September 28, 2014
... ... ...
LS: But it is very profitable to develop fracking in the US?
MvM: Well, this is an interesting point of view that you have there because we did calculations on the economics of the companies involved in oil fracking and we came to the conclusion that most of these companies are not making very much money over the longer-term as far as we have been able to discern from the financial reports being published. In fact, we would think that given the decline rates in these oil wells the capital expenditure is becoming more or less a sort of operational expenditure and then oil becomes very expensive to calculate on that basis. So, to me this is probably the most expensive oil in the market.
LS: Yes, however isn’t the current price of oil and the development of fracking due to high prices a replay of what we saw in the aftermath of the oil shocks in 1973/74 and 1979 related to the oil developments in Alaska and in the North Sea?
MvM: No, I wouldn’t name it like that because the fracking is more like a production type process. So you have to do it continuously. If you stop the capital expenditure or basically developing the new wells then your production profile falls back very quickly – and this was not the case in either Alaska or the North Sea. So all this money had been spent and has been spent in these two areas, but the production that came from it has lasted a very long time. So it’s not directly comparable.
LS: Yes, but what I mean is that it took a lot of money to develop those fields in Alaska and the North Sea, and now it takes a lot of money to do the fracking.
MvM: Yes, that’s entirely true, but the difference is that it requires a constant stream of money in fracking to sustain the production levels, whereas in Alaska and the North Sea the amount of money invested was high, but then it gave also long profile of substantial amounts of oil coming back in without requiring additional large amounts of capital expenditures.
LS: What do you see coming in the next years? Is there some kind of vicious circle involved in the financial crisis that only few pay attention to?
MvM: Yes, I would think so. If you look at the amount of crude oil being produced, it has been static more or less since 2005. We have been throwing all sorts of money and all sorts of liquids to the market and we just can’t get the price down. So fracking is not a real solution, because it’s not a cheap form of energy that goes into the economic engine. So, one way or another we have to find something that is cheaper or we have to reduce our demand – and demand is only being reduced when the price goes high enough.
LS: What can our societies do to solve those problems related to energy?
MvM: We have to be much more energy efficient. Effectively prioritize different things; we can drive smaller cars for instance. |
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