szlh

你是女的？？？
我倒走眼了

Post by 圆明园

跟贴的媳妇跑了.

圆明园

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1209784,00.html

Will This Marriage Last?
A wedding-season guide for handicapping the newlyweds. A variety of factors can lower the odds of divorce to 20%, or raise it to 70%
  By                                   PO BRONSON AND ASHLEY MERRYMAN

Wedding season is here again. Your attendance has been requested. Dust off your finest, buy a well-wrapped gift, and slap on an optimistic smile.   One of the great bystander sports at weddings is looking for clues that forecast whether this couple will last, or whether they'll just become another divorce statistic. You'll keep these thoughts to yourself, but the mental guessing is nearly impossible to turn off. You've got your hunches. You would have more confidence in the wedding if this couple had moved in together for six months to test-drive this relationship. You might not worry that she was raised in a broken home, but you do worry that he was married before. And the groom hasn't darkened a church door in years, but the bride insisted they get married in a chapel — you're not sure what to make of that.

The truth is that some of these factors actually matter, and some do not. Every wedding is haunted by that axiom, "Half of all marriages end in divorce." But it's not a random coin flip. At the time of a couple's wedding, there are factors already present that can raise the odds of divorce to as high as 70%, or lower it to nearly 20%.

  The first thing to keep in mind is that the divorce rate has stabilized. An average couple now has a 57% chance of seeing their 15th wedding anniversary. If they make it that far, most will reach "til death do us part."

Let's group the risk factors into three. The first grouping is the couple's relationship. The second grouping is financial issues. The third grouping is their family history.

  Regarding the couple, their age matters. If they are just out of high school, that's not so good. (No surprise.) The odds improve dramatically if they're at least 25 — but don't assume the older the better. Marrying at age 35 is not any better than age 25.

Most couples today cohabit before they marry. The crucial issue here is whether they moved in together with the full intention to get married, or whether they moved in together just because it was the logical thing to do, since he was always at her place anyway. You might think that living together is a sort of "trial period" that helps prevent bad marriages, since they can break up before taking an oath to each other. But the odds suggest the opposite; they divorce more. Why doesn't this filter work? Very likely, whatever it was that made them not want to get married in the first place ended up becoming a problem long-term.

If the couple has ever invited you over for dinner, you've got a good clue there. Does the groom substantially help with the housework, cleaning, and cooking? If he does, this may be one of the most important predictors of all. We don't usually think about this when they are standing at the altar, but the bride will definitely be thinking about it in two years if her husband has left all the chores to her. A man who does housework is also going to be involved in childrearing — another major benefit to the couple.

  If this is a second marriage, for either bride or groom, their odds of divorce are somewhat higher. Remarried families have more complex issues to confront: ex's to deal with, and stepchildren to raise. But this risk is often overstated; a middle-class second marriage has only 3% more risk than a first marriage. Being religious doesn't make a couple happier with their marriage, but it does mean they might try a little harder to stick it out. FYI, among the major religions, Catholics get divorced the least. Protestants the most. But what is really important here is not what religion they are, but how devoted they are to practicing their faith. You're right to worry if the bride insisted they married in the chapel, when the groom really wanted a wedding at the beach.

  Let's talk money. Money helps, a lot — but a relatively small amount of money goes a long way. If this couple will earn a modest $50,000 as a family, their odds of seeing their 15th anniversary jump to 68%. By and large, well-off couples divorce over personality conflicts while poorer couples divorce over alcoholism, physical abuse, and money problems. (Infidelity is a frequent deal-breaker, rich or poor.)

If you've heard that the bride and groom have been hunting for a house to buy, that's a good sign. Homeowners aren't happier in marriage than renters, but there's a permanence to their life — a connection to a community. The house is also a roadblock to divorce, being hard to divide.

Now for the really fun stuff — their families. Pay close attention to the parents of the bride and groom. Are they divorced? If so, it's been known for some time that their children are at higher risk of divorce when they marry. It's quite significant — it raises their odds of divorce by 14%. But you need to know a little more before applying this handicap. Before the parents divorced, was their conflict loud and visible to the children? Or was their conflict kept hushed behind closed doors? Surprisingly, it's the children of the latter who are getting divorced. Growing up in a home where they thought everything was fine — until their parents suddenly announced their divorce — leads those children not to trust their relationships.

  Watch the bride and her father as they walk down the aisle. Are they tense with each other? If so, that's bad. Women with poor relationships to their fathers are more likely to get divorced from their husband. That's not the case for the groom — the quality of his relationship to his father does not impact his odds.

By now, all these risk factors probably seem overwhelming. Even worse, it seems that there's very little an engaged couple can do to help themselves. They can't reverse their parent's divorce, and they can't elevate their financial status overnight. They might be able to attend church, but if God hasn't spoken to them, faking it doesn't help.

  But it's not all a fait accompli. There are many things a couple can do to improve their odds. Wait until they're 25, for instance. And a young man can learn to wash a toilet and roast a chicken. He can also learn to change a diaper — it's not that hard.

  If the bride has a poor relationship with her father, her fate's not sealed either. Among those women, those who've created a strong bond with the groom's family counteract their risk.

The couple's expectations are a huge factor in the longevity of their marriage. Couple who have attended premarital classes or counseling cut their odds of divorce by almost a third. We don't know if the classes actually change the couples, or if those couples are already realistic and savvy to the dangers (which is why they were smart enough to take the class). But premarital counseling might be the best wedding gift any newlyweds can receive.

  Bottom line, the weddings you attend this summer are likely to have much better odds of lasting than a coin flip. That's something to relish, when the champagne has run dry and the band covers Kool & The Gang and one of the bridesmaids has run off in tears.

christina5b

你知道吗?只要花不多的钱,可能一个妓女能变成处女,婚姻的好坏不是由妻子纯不纯洁来决定的,男女都有责任,需要大家共同维护。我认识几个比较年纪大的处女，不是样貌不好，就是性格古怪，不知那位富商是想找处女还是有恋童癖。

szlh

看你居然继续磨蹭了一个小时。媳妇这么宽容？;)

Post by 圆明园
我不用提示功能, 每天盯着.
该睡了. 不然, LZ的媳妇没找到, 跟贴的媳妇跑了.

圆明园

Post by christina5b
你知道吗?只要花不多的钱,可能一个妓女能变成处女,婚姻的好坏不是由妻子纯不纯洁来决定的,男女都有责任,需要大家共同维护。我认识几个比较年纪大的处女，不是样貌不好，就是性格古怪，不知那位富商是想找处女还是有恋童癖。

就是, 卖油朗独占花魁
还有可能成烈女, 比如杜十娘怒沉百宝箱

妓女里英雄人物多了去了, 羊脂球, 桃花扇,西施,李师师

圆明园

Post by szlh
看你居然继续磨蹭了一个小时。媳妇这么宽容？;)

瞎扯淡,乐趣无穷啊

szlh

是地是地。怕是怕搅了楼主的正事。要不要换个地方扯？

Post by 圆明园
瞎扯淡,乐趣无穷啊

圆明园

Post by szlh
是地是地。怕是怕搅了楼主的正事。要不要换个地方扯？

换地方, 换地方.
不过, LZ是红花, 需要绿叶.

传统男生

我发的是征婚帖，所以我这里理解的传统是和婚姻家庭相关联，本初的含义有四点：
1、慎重对待自己的情感，在没有确认男女朋友关系之前，可以多认识交往一些异性朋友，但是一旦确认男女朋友关系之后，就必须慎重地对待这段情感和与其他异性的交往；
2、和一个合适的女子组建家庭，和她是婚姻关系，而不是同居关系；
3、一同努力把家庭建设好，把子女教育好，敬老爱幼，保持大家庭的和睦与稳定；
4、男人应该是家庭的顶梁柱（精神上更是），男人要挣钱养家，照顾好女人和孩子，女人要体谅男人。

来加拿大以后，听到、看到不少家庭破裂解体、男女出轨故事，在这里，很多男女朋友之间已经习惯了是一个同居关系，而不是婚姻家庭关系。对于这些现象、故事、新道德，我思考很久，我觉得别人的事情，很多我都能理解，但是就我本人，我依旧向往如上所述的传统的婚姻与道德，那些更适合于我。

我自认为传统，但是我并不认为我就一定比不传统的人更为高尚，就一定比不传统的人更受欢迎。很多持新道德的人，包括老外，风度、修养、职业都要超越于我。上个星期，两件事情对我刺激很大。那是搬家日的前一天，我外出买点日用品然后回家，经过一家老外门前，发现沿街门前的地上堆放了一些弃用的家居物品，还有一台体积不小的电视机，我发现，电视的遥控器是用一根橡皮筋和电视栓在一起，我惊诧很久。我现住verdun区，也几乎一直居住在这里，网上有人发帖说居住在这里的人素质如何如何“了不起”，也经常听人说，对老外对女人，包括对中国女人玩玩的态度嗤之以鼻，可是，我想想自己，如果我也把一台不需要的电视机弃放在路边，我是否也会向那个的老外一样，想起把遥控器和电视机拴在一起？我怀疑自己。

还是上个星期，我驱车外出，经过停牌，正好遇上一个黑人小男孩，八九岁的样子，骑着一辆自行车要过马路，我停车给他让先，过街之后，他已经离路4-5米，还回头朝我挥手谢意。我知道，很多中国人，骨子里是看不上黑人的，可是在那一刻，我觉得这个黑人小男孩的表现要比我平时的一贯表现更好。

社会的道德、规则、礼仪有很多很多，如果我们能给所有这些按照重要程度排出一个先后顺序，并赋予各自权重，然后我们来给每一个人打打分排个顺序，我认为一定有很多很多在对待婚姻、家庭关系上持非传统道德的人，他们的得分要超越于我，所以，我并不认为持传统道德的人就一定更为高尚，包括我。

传统男生

在婚姻家庭关系上持传统道德，有时候体会到的并非高尚或高明，而是失落。在现在社会，如果一个男子公开宣称，一定要找一个处女做老婆，恐怕女人们要讥讽他，专家学者们也不会支持他，甚至就连一个普通的男子也说他迂腐、笨傻。对于他，女孩子婚前不性这样的传统道德，我想大家不是很难理解，他传统吗？他高尚吗？他聪明吗？如果他是一个很有钱的商业人士，恐怕他背负的罪名又要更多。

同样，如果在一个社会，绝大多数人、或越来越多的人都采纳男女同居关系这样的新道德，而不是婚姻家庭关系的传统道德，那些少数持传统道德的人一定会被更多的人认为脑子进了水，傻冒。现实就是，越来越多的研究和社会现实表明，人类越来越进入同居时代。想想中国高居不下的离婚率，想想越来越风行的大学生同居，想想我们独生子女政策培养出来的、只知道重视自己感受的独生子女，再想想我们周围很多移民之后却家庭解体的一个又一个事例，你是否对传统的婚姻家庭还有信心? 我们有否必要再向往它？

有人群的地方就有左中右，尽管对待感情、对待性、对待婚姻、家庭，包括男女同居，甚至同性关系的新道德越来越多，越来越多元，我还是能够感受到，在这些问题上持传统观念的人依旧还是主流，虽然我本人的征婚还没有实质进展，但是那又是另外一回事。

在我这次发帖之后，还是有幸收到一些来信，尽管我也感觉到，一些女生在观念上和我不是一路，但是更多的女生还是向往传统的男女情感，渴望婚姻，希望组建家庭。我手头正好也有一篇材料，那是发表在2006年6月30日《商报》（[url]www.bizzweekly.com）上的一篇文章，“绝大多数加人一生只结一次婚”，这里，我摘录其中的一些重要观点：
1、绝大多数加拿大人一生中只结过一次婚，再婚者的人口比率微不足道，2001年，在25岁以上的全国人口中，再婚者人数不到整个结婚人口的1%；
2、婚姻持续的时间越长，婚姻关系愈不容易破裂；
3、在第一次结婚前即已同居的夫妇，离异的可能性比结婚后同居者高50%；
4、孩子是婚姻关系的“粘合剂”，在第一次婚姻关系中，没有孩子的夫妇，离婚的可能性要比有孩子的高73%；
5、绝大多数加拿大人都认为，婚姻属于“人生大事”，直接关系到幸福与否，只有极少数人认为婚姻无足轻重，但后者离婚的可能性，比前者高出约70%；
6、不少人认为，传统的婚姻观念与现代社会格格不入，早已被抛弃进了历史的垃圾堆，但这只是一个错觉。

我很想知道，离婚以后的加拿大人，又有多少比例的人口再次选择的是结婚成家的婚姻关系而不是同居关系，可惜在这篇文章里，我没有能够找到这样的数据。

当越来越多的中国人，尤其是年轻人，在尝试新道德的新奇和趣味的时候，在大洋彼岸的美国，相当多的专家、教授、学者，感觉到在他们的社会，男女在情感、两性关系问题上的困惑和迷茫，他们正把目光转而投向东方，认为在那里存在着解决问题的智慧和方法。有趣的是，越来越多的中国人却对他们国家的自由和文明，表现出越来越多的热情和兴趣，并努力身体力行，这是一个有趣的对比。

我并不是一个禁欲主义者，我崇尚自然主义，我认为人到什么时候就应该做什么样的事情。我没有入教，但是我更倾向于信仰上帝。我主张简单的男女关系。上帝为亚当创造了一个夏娃，而不是两个甚至更多的夏娃，上帝也没有为亚当再造一个亚当，或给夏娃再造一个夏娃。

婚姻上的传统道德更适合于我，它给我带来实实在在的好处。坚持这样的道德，不会给我带来附罪感；坚持这样的道德，使得单身的我，在遇到一个我欣赏、喜欢的女子的时候，很多时候都能赋予我信心和勇气前去一试；坚持这样的道德，使得当我向一个女孩表白的时候，自我感觉还是一个童身的男子（虽然我已不是），这样的自我感觉使得我很自然地就能说出一些动人的话语。有这三点，就已足够。

我能否问一个问题？假设有这样一个男子，在商业上他是一位非常成功人士，他有过一次失败的婚姻，我们暂时不管他婚姻失败的原因是什么，他单身很久，他需要女人，也从不缺少女人，他发现，和他相处的女人无非是看重他口袋里的银子，她们可以和他在一起，也可以和有钱的别人在一起，终于有一天，他厌恶了这种逢场做戏，他想娶一个单纯的女子，他不知道谁是单纯还是不单纯，于是他登报做了一个这样的广告，“千万富翁寻单纯、美丽处女为妻”，请问，如果你是那样的一位女子，你会不会象网上、报纸上听说到的、如大众主流观点一般去看待他？你会应征吗？