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Factors influencing common share prices
Fundamental factors
External events
Events that are unpredictable and that have an impact on the economy and subsequently on share prices (for example, wars, revolutions, currency devaluations, assassinations, trade agreements or disputes, changes in commodity prices).
For example, the devaluation of the Brazilian Real in January 1999 caused a sell-off in Brazilian stocks. Investors then perceived the risks of investing in Brazil to be too high and started to sell their Brazilian as well as Latin American shares, causing share prices, in general, to fall. When the share price declines were added to currency losses, the results were very negative.
Fiscal policies
These are the policies of government that relate to government taxing and expenditure measures. These policies can affect the overall level of economic activity and, as a result, the profitability of individual industries.
For example, tax increases reduce disposable income, which dampens consumer confidence and spending. That can negatively affect corporate profits and share prices.
In another case, fiscal policies such as the introduction of the dividend tax credit and the exemption from tax of a portion of capital gains were designed to encourage greater share ownership by Canadians. The success of these policies would tend to boost share prices through the higher demand for shares.
Monetary policies
These are the policies established by the Bank of Canada to influence the level of economic activity in efforts to maintain stable prices (that is, control inflation). The Bank of Canada affects the level of economic activity primarily through its influence on short-term interest rates. We have already spent some time discussing how the Bank influences short-term rates by transferring government deposits, affecting demand for T-Bills, and generating change in the bank rate, which then impacts other rates.
The Bank also controls the money supply to the economy, but the money supply tends to be a secondary interest to the Bank as compared to interest rates. The Bank is primarily interested in the level of total spending in the economy, and, should inflationary pressures start to build, the Bank will try to dampen spending with higher interest rates. The money supply will then change according to the changes in spending generated by the Bank.
Changes in the rate of interest that are generated by the Bank will, therefore, affect the level of economic activity and, as a result, company performance, profits, and stock prices.
For example, higher interest rates will tend to attract investors away from equities and toward fixed income investments. As a consequence, share prices may fall. The reverse also holds true.
Inflation
This can cause uncertainty and lack of consumer and investor confidence in the future. High inflation leads to higher business costs that must be passed on to consumers in order to maintain profitability levels. If they can't be passed on, if consumers resist, then corporate profits fall, and share prices fall. Higher rates of inflation lead to higher interest rates, which tend to dampen consumer spending and investment, again lowering profits and ultimately share prices.
Low inflation rates tend to generate more consumer and investor confidence and allow companies to control costs and profitability levels much more effectively. The environment for investment tends to be more stable, which tends to encourage investors and helps to improve management decision making and planning. All of these possibilities can have a positive effect on share prices.
Business cycles
These cycles represent the various phases of economic growth for the economy over time. The economy tends to experience periods of economic expansion (growth in total output measured by real GDP) when employment and incomes tend to rise. As the economy reaches a certain point, however, inflation pressures tend to set in, pressures from high levels of consumer spending, rising production costs, and pressures from wage demands. These forces tend to put upward pressure on prices.
As inflationary forces set in, interest rates will tend to rise. The combination of rising prices and interest rates causes the economy to reach a peak and then experience a period of decline. If an economy experiences two consecutive quarters (three-month periods) of negative growth, the economy is said to be in recession. The length of the period of decline or recession can vary significantly.
During periods of decline, unemployment will tend to rise and incomes will tend to fall. Over time, inflationary pressures tend to ease, price increases tend to moderate, and interest rates tend to fall. Eventually, the decline will bottom out in a trough of the business cycle, and the economy will begin another period of economic expansion.
Common share prices normally rise prior to and during periods of economic expansion due to expectations of an improving economy, improved corporate performance, and rising profits. Share prices usually fall prior to and during periods of business decline, perhaps even when economic conditions still appear favourable.
Investors try to anticipate the peak and sell before the peak is past, because investors know that corporate profits will tend to fall past the peak of the cycle. Investors will sell their shares to lock in the capital gains they have achieved during the period of economic expansion. The important thing to remember is that stock market levels result from investors' anticipation of the economy. Markets lead the economy by as much as 6 to 12 months.
Technical factors
Technical factors relate to the conditions within, not external to, the stock market itself. They include:
- price movements
- trading volumes
- supply and demand factors
For example, during a period of expansion and improved corporate performance, it can be expected that share prices should rise due to this external influence. But how has the market itself responded? Has the market over bought and pushed some prices too high?
Analysts attempt to determine the probable course of share prices by examining the past and present actions of the market. They look at how the market has responded in the past and the trends it has demonstrated.
Derivatives
A derivative is a type of investment that has a value based on the value of another investment such as a stock, a bond, a currency, or a commodity. That is, it derives its value from something else.
There are many different types of derivatives. Options and futures are among the most common and are the two types that Canadian mutual funds may use |
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