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Short-term earthquake prediction is SCIENTIFICALLY impossible today,
period. Not making that crystal clear puts CEA in an awkward situation:
its official mandate is earthquake prediction. CEA holds monthly
national meetings to analyze the "trend of large earthquakes", creating
an illusion that the mission is possible, if you work hard and are well
funded. And CEA is handsomely funded. No surprising that CEA finds
itself in hot water when a big quake hits.
In the US, the emphasis is not on earthquake "prediction" (it is a dirty
word to most), except in a few areas where emerging technology is
explored to gain a few seconds of warning time when a big quake occur.
Instead, the major effort here is directed toward earthquake hazards
management. It is still a tricky issue here, and would be more difficult
to apply the practice to China. How do you enforce a costly building
code in Wenchuan county, when the school there can barely afford a
simplest break building?
I'm deeply saddened by the tragedy. The online images torture my
conscience as a scientist. I wish there is some way we can help with
our limited knowledge of earthquakes and earthquake hazards.
Post by kevin_lee
国家养的地震局的那批专家,还不如养一群癞蛤蟆, 操, 癞蛤蟆比他们诚实,准确多了。草菅人命啊。 |
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